AGAINST THE GODS THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK PDF
Bernstein, Peter L. Against the gods: The remarkable story of risk/Peter L. Bernstein. р. ΕΤΤ. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller " Ambitious and readable an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom. Editorial Reviews. sppn.info Review. With the stock market breaking records almost daily, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Kindle Edition.
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Against the Gods-The Remarkable Story of Risk - Download as PDF File .pdf), Text File .txt) or read online. Peter L Bernstein - Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk - Ebook download as PDF File .pdf) or read book online. Story of risk. sppn.info - Ebook download as PDF File .pdf) or read book online.
There is the Huguenot refugee Abraham De Moivre.
There is the secretive James Bernoulli. There are some minor errors of fact for example. There is the ascetic Blaise Pascal.
Bernstein opts for a much more standard explanation: It is not the work of a professional historian. The Marquis de Condorcet. Probability created a resurgence of interest in the history of probability.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Mathematicians often live relatively uneventful lives. Cardano many years later described it in the Ars Magna. After persuading a reticient Nicolo Tartaglia to divulge his solution of the cubic under a strict pledge of secrecy. Cardano and Bernoulli were not the only two who published only after they perished.
Cardano was. It discusses a number of neglected topics. Bernstein has written an interesting. But these are minor blemishes.
Kahneman and Tversky on prospect theory Chapter The author tells this part of his history with an attractive verve. It is in the second half of the book that Bernstein seems particularly in his element.
Surely not. Harry Markowitz on portfolio selection Chapter On the other hand. The book also resorts on a number of occasions to an unnecessary hyperbole. One is that its presentation of certain topics in statistics is occasionally confused or confusing. The discussions of normality and its relationship to independence on pp.
This is. Ibn Battuta in the Muslim principality of Hannaur , witnessed 13 schools teaching Muslim women. Both genders were taught by mullahs , however lower-classes were more uneducated.
Among the reasons considered for its use are that it represented an elite status during the Muslim period and was also used to guard women and men from looking at each other with lust, and as during this period the rulers and nobility sometimes engaged in debauchery and excesses. Akbar made it a rule that those women roaming without a veil be made a prostitute. He also directed that they should live within their house and travel under supervision of a male.
Muslim women thus suffered greatly and often denied education.
Bernstein Peter L. Against the Gods. Remarkable Story of Risk
The upper-class women were better-off due to private education and entertainment. The purdah system became weaker as the Mughal empire declined. The Gond queen Durgavati — ruled for fifteen years before losing her life in a battle with Mughal emperor Akbar 's general Asaf Khan in Chand Bibi defended Ahmednagar against the powerful Mughal forces of Akbar in the s.
Jehangir 's wife Nur Jehan effectively wielded imperial power, and was recognised as the real power behind the Mughal throne. The Mughal princesses Jahanara and Zebunnissa were well-known poets, and also influenced the ruling powers. Abbakka Chowta was the first Tuluva Queen of Ullal who fought the Portuguese in the latter half of the 16th century. Shivaji 's mother, Jijabai , was queen regent because of her ability as a warrior and an administrator.
Tarabai was another female Maratha ruler. Onake Obavva was a woman who fought the forces of Hyder Ali single-handedly with a pestle Onake  in the kingdom of Chitradurga. Mai Sukhan , with her small Sikh forces, strongly defended the town of Amritsar against external forces. Kittur Chennamma was the Rani of Kittur , who led an armed force against the British East India Company in in defiance of the doctrine of lapse in an attempt to maintain Indian control over the region, but was defeated in the third war and died imprisoned.
In South India, many women administered villages, towns, and divisions, and ushered in new social and religious institutions. Historical practices[ edit ] There have been positive practices of women as subject of respect in India, and there have been regressive practices as well.
Here are some practices Naari Puja[ edit ] In Kerala's Alappuzha district, an ancient temple called Chakkulathu Kavu holds an exceptionally remarkable annual ritual of worshipping women in the month of December.
Popularly known as Naari Puja, the ritual is conducted every year on the first Friday of Dhanu maasam. The chief priest of the temple himself conducts the puja.
Thousands of women are worshipped during the ceremony regardless of the caste, religion or creed they belong to. Women are seated on a chair peetom for the ritual and the chief priest washes their feet. The women are later garlanded and offered flowers.
Sati[ edit ] Sati was a custom among some communities, in which the widow was immolated alive on her husband's funeral pyre. It only started becoming regular after AD. The custom is named after the Hindu goddess Sati , who sacrificed herself rather than endure insults about her husband Shiva.
Roshen Dalal has said that its mention in the Puranas indicates that it slowly grew from 5th-7th century and became a custom around ADm  It was abolished by the British in There have been around forty reported cases of Sati since Indian independence. Worse, nothing suggested that they even should try to imagine something different.
Consequently, the calamities may not have been unpredictable, but they had become unthinkable.
Now, consider this: If no one was able even to imagine that stock yields would remain below bond yields for decades, that bonds are in fact risk investments, and that OPEC could dominate the world energy scene, how could we have expected a computer to imagine wildness like that? How can we instruct a computer to model events that have never occurred, that exist beyond the realm of human imagination? How can we program into the computer concepts that we cannot even program into ourselves?
Clearly, we cannot put future data into the computer, because we do not know the future data. Instead, we program past data—the only available fuel for our models.
As Paul Samuelson has pointed out, history provides us with only one sample of the economy and the capital markets, not with thousands of separate, autonomous, and stochastic numbers.
Even though many economic and financial variables have approximately normal distributions, the picture is never perfect. Resemblance to truth is not the same thing as truth. Those outliers and imperfections are where the wildness lurks.
It is equally silly to limit our deliberations only to those variables that do lend themselves to quantification, excluding all serious consideration of the unquantifiable. It is irrational to confuse probability with timing and to assume that an event with low probability is therefore not imminent.
Such confusion, however, is by no means unusual. Finally, the science of risk management is capable of creating new risks even as it brings old risks under control.
Our faith in risk management encourages us to take risks we otherwise would not take. On most counts, that is beneficial. But we should be wary of increasing the total amount of risk in the system. Research shows that the security of seat belts encourages drivers to behave more aggressively, with the result that the number of accidents rises even as the seriousness of injury in any one accident may diminish. Derivative instruments designed as hedges have become vehicles for high-speed sleigh rides that no manager likes to contemplate.
The introduction of portfolio insurance in the late s encouraged a higher level of equity exposure than had prevailed before that invention. I have concerns about a similar process at work today among conservative institutional investors who use broad diversification to justify their large exposure in untested areas. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss, only against losing everything at once.
Yet nothing is more soothing and authoritative than the screen of the computer, with its imposing arrays of numbers, luminous color schemes, and artfully composed charts. That is not the worst of it. As we sit and stare at the data and the graphs, we are so absorbed in what we are doing that we tend to forget we are operating a gadget whose mind is at rest.
Computers exist to answer questions, not to ask them. Whenever we allow ourselves to ignore that truth, the computer becomes the ally rather than the enemy of our conceptual errors. Those who live by the numbers may find that the mathematically inspired techniques of modernism have sown the seeds of a destructive technology in which computers have become mere replacements for the snake dances, the bloodlettings, the genuflections, and the visits to the oracles and witches that characterized risk management and decision making in days of yore.
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The New Religion of Risk Management
It was he who first introduced a systematic version of double-entry bookkeeping.From to , stock yields exceeded bond yields by an average of 1. He continued as consulting editor of the Journal and served on the advisory panel of Robert D. Table of contents Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 TO She refused deals with the British and later retreated to Nepal.
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